Core Concepts
The logistic function can be used to make reliable long-term forecasts for worldwide energy consumption and U.S. oil production, revealing insights into the evolving energy mix and the impact of new extraction methods like hydraulic fracturing.
Abstract
The analysis uses the logistic function to model and forecast worldwide energy consumption and the primary energy mix since 1965. It finds that while the overall energy consumption follows a logistic trajectory, the shares of individual energy sources have deviated from the classic logistic substitution model introduced by Marchetti in the 1980s.
The author groups the energy sources into four competitors - Coal + Oil, Natural Gas + Hydroelectric, Nuclear, and Renewables. This grouping allows the logistic substitution model to be applied successfully, revealing insights such as:
- Coal and oil are gently declining while natural gas and hydroelectric are gaining ground.
- Renewables are growing exclusively at the expense of nuclear and are poised to overtake it by the late 2030s.
- By mid-21st century, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain the main players of comparable size, with hydroelectric having almost doubled in size. Renewables will have replaced nuclear but remain less than a quarter the size of the other three.
The analysis also examines U.S. oil production, which closely followed a logistic trajectory until the rise of shale oil production via hydraulic fracturing (fracking) in the 2000s. Fracking oil production is modeled separately and found to be a much shorter-lived process, expected to cease by mid-21st century, while traditional oil production will continue its slow decline. U.S. oil production is forecast to represent less than 1% of worldwide oil consumption by 2050.
The logistic modeling approach provides quantitative confidence levels on the forecasts, highlighting the uncertainties involved. The author argues that the forecasts will come true as long as no major "mutations" or unprecedented events occur to disrupt the well-established natural-growth trajectories.
Stats
By mid-21st century, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain the main energy sources of comparable size.
Hydroelectric energy will almost double in size by mid-21st century.
Renewables will have replaced nuclear energy by the late 2030s, but will remain less than a quarter the size of the other three main energy sources.
U.S. oil production by fracking is 30% completed through its logistic trajectory and is expected to cease by mid-21st century.
U.S. oil production will represent less than 1% of the oil consumed worldwide by mid-21st century.
Quotes
"The logistic function is generally suitable to describe natural-growth processes. Originally designed for species populations it is dotted with predictive power as demonstrated by the fact that no ecological niche has ever remained incomplete under natural conditions."
"Deviations from logistic trajectories may result from ―inappropriate‖ government decisions, wars, or major technological breakthroughs. Deviations meet with resistance and those resulting from ill-conceived decrees are generally short-lived permitting the logistic trajectory to continue its course toward completion."
"Renewables—wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, and waste—are growing exclusively on the expense of nuclear and are poised to overtake it in mid-2035."