The core of this work is the development of an objective algorithm for comparing 3D forensic toolmarks. The authors address the limitations of traditional subjective, human-based toolmark comparison methods, which can lead to inconsistencies and errors.
The key aspects of the methodology are:
Data Generation: The authors generated three databases of toolmarks from consecutively manufactured screwdrivers, varying the angle and direction of the marks. They used a portable 3D scanner to capture the toolmark data.
Similarity Matrices and Clustering: The authors calculated similarity matrices between the toolmark signatures and used a clustering algorithm (PAM) to group the marks by source (tool), rather than by angle or direction. This demonstrates that the within-tool variability is lower than the between-tool variability, even when accounting for different angles and directions.
Density Estimation: The authors plotted the densities of similarity scores for known matches (KM) and known non-matches (KNM). They fit parametric distributions to these densities to enable the calculation of likelihood ratios for new toolmark comparisons.
Likelihood Ratio Approach: The authors introduce a score-based likelihood ratio method to provide a probabilistic interpretation of the toolmark comparison results. This allows forensic examiners to quantify the strength of the evidence in terms of how much more likely the evidence is under the prosecution's hypothesis versus the defense's hypothesis.
The authors demonstrate that their approach achieves high sensitivity (98%) and specificity (96%), outperforming traditional subjective methods. This work offers a standardized, objective solution for forensic toolmark comparison that can help reduce errors and improve reliability in the legal system.
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