Modeling the Need for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand Among Older Adults: A Case Study of Winnipeg

Centrala begrepp

This research paper uses agent-based modeling to estimate the potential demand for an autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) system tailored to the needs of older adults in Winnipeg, Canada, highlighting the importance of considering demographic factors and spatial heterogeneity in transportation planning.

Sammanfattning

• Bibliographic Information: Pr´edhumeau, M., & Manley, E. (2024). Agent-Based Modelling of Older Adult Needs for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand: A Case Study in Winnipeg, Canada. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.11416v1.
• Research Objective: The study aims to estimate the potential demand for an AMoD system specifically designed for older adults in Winnipeg, addressing the limitations of conventional transportation models in capturing the unique mobility needs of this demographic.
• Methodology: The researchers developed an agent-based model (ABM) using open data sources, including OpenStreetMap, the Canadian Census, and the Time Use Survey. This model simulates the daily mobility patterns of Winnipeg residents, with a focus on older adults, considering factors like demographics, transportation access, and activity schedules. The ABM was implemented in the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim) framework and calibrated to match observed travel behaviors.
• Key Findings: The ABM successfully replicates key mobility trends observed in real-world data, including the decreasing travel frequency with age, the reliance of older adults on car use, and the temporal differences in travel patterns between older adults and the general population. The simulations suggest a significant potential demand for AMoD services among older adults in Winnipeg, particularly for non-work-related trips.
• Main Conclusions: The study demonstrates the effectiveness of ABM in understanding the complex mobility needs of older adults and highlights the potential of AMoD systems to address transportation challenges associated with an aging population. The authors emphasize the importance of considering demographic factors and spatial heterogeneity in transportation planning to ensure equitable and efficient mobility solutions for all.
• Significance: This research contributes to the growing body of literature on AMoD and its potential to enhance transportation accessibility for older adults. The findings have implications for policymakers and transportation planners seeking to develop age-friendly transportation systems.
• Limitations and Future Research: The study acknowledges limitations related to data availability and the simplified representation of AMoD supply in the simulations. Future research could explore more complex AMoD scenarios, incorporate additional data sources to enhance model accuracy, and investigate the economic and social impacts of implementing AMoD services for older adults.

Statistik

As of 2019, 17.6% of Canada’s population are older adults (i.e., aged 65 or over) and this proportion is expected to reach 22.8% by 2030.
In 2021 Winnipeg had 749,607 inhabitants with 17 % of the population aged 65 or older.
Previous implementations have shown that DRT can be very failure prone; 50% last less than 7 years.
Among Winnipeg City households, car trips accounted for 64.8% of the daily trips, ride for 15.8%, public transit for 8.2%, walk trips for 9.5% and bike trips for 0.7%.
The average trip length by car (or ride) in the simulation is 13 km.
80.7% of older adults’ trips are by car.
29.9% of older respondents stayed at home during their reported week day.
In the model, 20.8% of older adults agents stay at home for the simulated day.
46% of 85+ agents stay at home for the simulated day.
75% of non-licensed 85+ agents stay at home vs. 8% for the licensed 85+ agents.

Citat

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Agent-Based Modelling of Older Adult Needs for Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand: A Case Study in Winnipeg, Canada

by Mano... på arxiv.org 10-16-2024

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.11416.pdf

Djupare frågor

How can AMoD systems be integrated with existing public transportation infrastructure to create a more comprehensive and accessible transportation network for older adults?

Integrating AMoD systems with existing public transportation infrastructure holds significant potential for creating a more comprehensive and accessible transportation network, especially for older adults who may face mobility challenges. Here's how this integration can be achieved:

First-Mile/Last-Mile Connectivity: AMoD can effectively bridge the gap between existing public transit stops and an individual's origin or destination. This is particularly beneficial for older adults who may have difficulty walking long distances to or from bus stops. AMoD services can provide on-demand, door-to-door transportation, enhancing the accessibility and convenience of public transit.

Seamless Transfers and Integrated Ticketing: Developing integrated ticketing systems that encompass both AMoD and public transit options would allow for seamless transfers and a unified payment system. This streamlines the travel experience for older adults, eliminating the need for multiple tickets or apps.

Demand-Responsive Public Transit: AMoD can be leveraged to create demand-responsive public transit routes, where vehicles dynamically adjust their routes based on real-time passenger requests. This can lead to more efficient service delivery, particularly in areas with lower population density or during off-peak hours, catering to the specific travel needs of older adults.

Data Sharing and Coordination: Establishing data-sharing mechanisms between AMoD operators and public transit agencies is crucial. This enables the optimization of routes, schedules, and resource allocation, leading to a more efficient and integrated transportation network. Real-time data on traffic conditions, public transit schedules, and AMoD demand can be used to improve overall system performance.

Accessibility Features: Ensuring that both AMoD vehicles and public transit options are equipped with accessibility features is paramount. This includes ramps or lifts for wheelchair access, audible announcements, and clear signage for visually impaired individuals.
By strategically integrating AMoD systems with existing public transportation infrastructure, cities can create a more inclusive, accessible, and efficient transportation network that caters to the diverse needs of older adults, enhancing their mobility and overall quality of life.

Could the adoption of AMoD systems lead to unintended consequences, such as increased social isolation among older adults who may reduce their in-person interactions?

While AMoD systems offer numerous potential benefits for older adults, it's crucial to consider potential unintended consequences, including the possibility of increased social isolation. Here's a balanced perspective:
Arguments for Potential Increase in Social Isolation:

Reduced Reliance on Others: AMoD's convenience and door-to-door service could reduce older adults' reliance on family, friends, or neighbors for transportation. This might lead to fewer opportunities for social interaction during shared rides or outings.
Digital Divide: Older adults with limited access to or comfort with technology might face barriers to using AMoD services, potentially exacerbating social isolation for those who are already digitally excluded.
Loss of Incidental Encounters: Public transit, while sometimes challenging, can provide opportunities for incidental social encounters and interactions with others. AMoD's individualized nature might reduce these chance meetings.
Arguments Against Increased Social Isolation:

Enhanced Mobility and Independence: AMoD can empower older adults with increased mobility and independence, enabling them to participate more fully in social activities, community events, and appointments. This enhanced mobility can actually combat social isolation by making it easier to maintain social connections.
Targeted Services for Social Inclusion: AMoD operators and community organizations can collaborate to offer specialized services that promote social inclusion, such as group rides to events or shared trips for errands, fostering a sense of community among older adults.
Virtual Connectivity: AMoD platforms could integrate features that facilitate virtual communication or social networking among users, potentially mitigating the risk of isolation by connecting older adults with similar interests or needs.
Mitigating Potential Risks:

Community Outreach and Education: Addressing the digital divide through targeted outreach programs and technology training for older adults is essential to ensure equitable access to AMoD services.
Promoting Social Interaction: AMoD operators and community organizations can play a proactive role in organizing social events or activities that encourage interaction among older adults using their services.
Monitoring and Evaluation: Continuous monitoring and evaluation of AMoD's impact on older adults' social well-being are crucial to identify and address any unintended consequences promptly.
In conclusion, while the adoption of AMoD systems presents a potential risk of increased social isolation among older adults, this is not a foregone conclusion. By carefully considering these potential consequences and implementing appropriate mitigation strategies, such as those outlined above, we can harness the benefits of AMoD while fostering social inclusion and well-being for older populations.

If the development of fully autonomous vehicles takes longer than anticipated, what interim solutions can be implemented to address the transportation needs of an aging population?

If the widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) faces delays, it's crucial to have interim solutions in place to address the transportation needs of an aging population. Here are some practical and effective approaches:
1. Enhancing Existing Transportation Services:

Expanding Paratransit Services: Increasing the availability, affordability, and accessibility of paratransit services can provide a vital lifeline for older adults with mobility impairments. This includes improving booking systems, expanding service areas, and reducing wait times.
Senior-Friendly Public Transit: Making public transportation more senior-friendly through low-floor buses, audible announcements, priority seating, and well-lit stops can encourage older adults to utilize these services.
Ride-Hailing Partnerships: Collaborating with ride-hailing companies to offer subsidized rides or specialized services for older adults can provide a more flexible and on-demand transportation option.
2. Leveraging Technology and Innovation:

Ride-Sharing Platforms for Seniors: Developing or adapting existing ride-sharing platforms specifically for older adults can facilitate shared rides with neighbors or volunteers, fostering social connections while addressing transportation needs.
Telehealth and Virtual Services: Expanding access to telehealth and virtual services can reduce the need for older adults to travel for medical appointments or consultations, improving healthcare access and convenience.
Smart Personal Mobility Devices: Promoting the use of safe and accessible personal mobility devices, such as electric scooters or walkers with enhanced stability features, can enhance independence for shorter trips.
3. Community-Based Solutions:

Volunteer Driver Programs: Supporting and expanding volunteer driver programs, where community members volunteer their time to provide rides for older adults, can foster a sense of community while addressing transportation gaps.
Neighborhood Transportation Networks: Encouraging the development of neighborhood-based transportation networks, where residents share rides or provide transportation assistance to older neighbors, can create local solutions.
Community Hubs and Service Integration: Establishing community hubs that offer a range of services, including transportation assistance, social activities, and healthcare access, can create a central point of support for older adults.
4. Policy and Funding Priorities:

Prioritizing Funding for Senior Mobility: Allocating dedicated funding for senior mobility initiatives, including the interim solutions mentioned above, is essential to ensure their implementation and sustainability.
Incentivizing Accessible Transportation Options: Providing incentives for transportation providers to adopt accessible vehicles and technologies can encourage the development of more inclusive transportation options.
Promoting Age-Friendly Communities: Implementing urban planning and design principles that prioritize walkability, accessibility, and access to essential services can create more age-friendly communities that reduce reliance on private vehicles.
By pursuing these interim solutions, cities and communities can effectively address the transportation needs of an aging population even as the development of fully autonomous vehicles progresses. These multi-faceted approaches, encompassing technology, community engagement, and policy interventions, can create a more accessible, equitable, and inclusive transportation landscape for older adults.