Citing Recent and Diverse Scientific Papers Predicts Breakthrough Inventions

核心概念

Patents that cite recent scientific papers and demonstrate a diverse range of cited paper ages are more likely to be highly impactful and lead to breakthrough inventions.

摘要

• Bibliographic Information: Ke, Q., Teng, Z., & Min, C. (2024). Relying on recent and temporally dispersed science predicts breakthrough inventions. arXiv preprint arXiv:2107.09176v2.
• Research Objective: This paper investigates the relationship between the temporal search patterns of patents in the scientific space and their subsequent impact, measured by forward citations and likelihood of becoming a "hit" patent.
• Methodology: The authors analyze a dataset of 3.7 million US utility patents granted between 1976 and 2009. They use patent citations to scientific papers (SNPRs) to assess the reliance of patents on scientific knowledge. The age of cited papers is calculated as the difference between the paper's publication year and the patent's grant year. The mean (µs) and coefficient of variation (cvs) of cited paper ages are used to characterize temporal search patterns. Negative binomial regression models are employed to estimate the effect of these search patterns on patent citations, while logistic regression models are used to predict the likelihood of a patent becoming a hit.
• Key Findings:
  • Patents citing scientific papers have significantly more forward citations and are more likely to be breakthrough inventions.
  • Citing more recent scientific papers is positively associated with patent impact.
  • However, a low variance in the age of cited papers can offset the positive effect of citing recent science.
  • The study finds positive interactions between temporal searches in the scientific and technological spaces, suggesting a synergistic effect.
• Main Conclusions: The findings suggest that inventors benefit from incorporating recent scientific knowledge into their inventions. However, relying solely on very recent science may limit the impact. A balanced approach that combines recent discoveries with established knowledge from a wider temporal range is more likely to lead to impactful inventions.
• Significance: This research contributes to our understanding of how the use of scientific knowledge influences technological innovation. It highlights the importance of temporal search strategies in the scientific domain for maximizing the impact of inventions.
• Limitations and Future Research: The study focuses on US patents, and future research could explore whether the findings hold in other contexts. Further investigation into the mechanisms driving the observed relationships between temporal search patterns and patent impact would be valuable.

統計資料

Only 12.5% of patents have cited scientific papers.
Patents with SNPRs have 49% more 10-year citations.
Patents with SNPRs have a 117% increase in the odds of becoming hits.
Cited science tends to be older than cited technology but has a lower variation.
There is a recent trend in referencing older science and technology.

引述

"Inventions, however, rely on not only technological knowledge but also scientific one, and the role of science in the development of new technologies has long been substantiated."
"Science may alter inventors’ search process towards more useful recombinations."
"The long-established effect of technological search on patent value is dependent on scientific search."

從以下內容提煉的關鍵洞見

Relying on recent and temporally dispersed science predicts breakthrough inventions

by Qing Ke, Ziy... 於 arxiv.org 11-15-2024

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.09176.pdf

深入探究

How might the increasing accessibility of scientific publications through digital libraries and online databases be influencing the temporal search patterns of inventors?

The increasing accessibility of scientific publications through digital libraries and online databases has significantly impacted the temporal search patterns of inventors in several ways:

Enhanced discoverability of recent research: Digital repositories allow for faster and wider dissemination of cutting-edge scientific knowledge. Inventors can now easily stay abreast of the latest discoveries, leading to a potential increase in citations to recent publications. This is in line with the observed trend in the study of referencing more recent scientific papers.
Easier access to older literature: While the focus might be on recent discoveries, digital libraries also provide access to a vast repository of older scientific publications. This accessibility allows inventors to unearth potentially overlooked or "sleeping beauties" in the scientific literature, fostering a more temporally diverse search pattern.
Shifting search strategies: The ease of keyword-based searches in digital libraries might lead inventors to prioritize recent publications that better match their search terms. This could potentially overshadow older, seminal work that might not be captured by modern keywords, contributing to the upward trend of mean age for both scientific and technological searches observed in the study.
Information overload and filtering: The sheer volume of information available online can lead to information overload. Inventors might rely on metrics like citation counts or download statistics, which are often biased towards newer publications, further reinforcing the focus on recent research.
Therefore, while increased accessibility democratizes knowledge, it also necessitates the development of sophisticated search strategies and tools that help inventors navigate this vast information landscape effectively and conduct a balanced temporal search.

Could the observed positive relationship between citing recent science and patent impact be attributed to factors other than the recency of the knowledge itself, such as increased visibility or hype surrounding newer research?

While the study attributes the positive relationship between citing recent science and patent impact to the recency of the knowledge, it's crucial to acknowledge other potential contributing factors:

Increased visibility and hype: Recent scientific publications often receive more attention and publicity, making them more visible to inventors. This increased visibility, rather than the inherent value of the knowledge itself, could lead to higher citation rates for recent papers.
"Hot topics" and funding bias: Research areas experiencing a surge in interest ("hot topics") often attract significant funding and generate a large volume of publications in a short period. Patents citing these "hot topic" publications might appear more impactful due to the overall momentum of the field, not necessarily because of the specific knowledge cited.
Methodological advancements: Recent scientific publications often utilize cutting-edge methodologies and technologies, which might be inherently more likely to lead to impactful inventions. Therefore, the observed impact might stem from the advanced methods employed rather than the recency of the research itself.
Citation bias in patent examination: Patent examiners might be more familiar with recent scientific literature, potentially leading to a bias towards granting patents that cite newer publications.
To disentangle the influence of recency from these confounding factors, future research could incorporate measures of research visibility, funding trends, and methodological novelty. This would provide a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between temporal search patterns and patent impact.

If breakthrough inventions are more likely to emerge from a combination of recent and temporally dispersed scientific knowledge, what strategies can organizations implement to encourage this type of balanced search behavior among their inventors?

Given the finding that a balanced approach to temporal search fosters breakthrough inventions, organizations can implement several strategies to encourage this behavior:

Develop awareness: Conduct workshops and training sessions to educate inventors about the benefits of incorporating both recent and temporally dispersed scientific knowledge. Highlight successful examples of inventions stemming from such a balanced approach.
Facilitate access to diverse resources: Subscribe to a wide range of scientific databases and libraries, ensuring access to both current and historical publications. Invest in tools and technologies that facilitate efficient searching and filtering across these diverse resources.
Promote cross-generational collaboration: Encourage collaboration between experienced researchers with knowledge of older literature and younger researchers more familiar with recent advancements. This cross-pollination of ideas can lead to a more balanced temporal search.
Incorporate temporal diversity in search protocols: Implement search protocols and guidelines that explicitly encourage exploring both recent and older literature. For instance, require a minimum number of citations from different time periods.
Reward balanced search behavior: Integrate temporal diversity as a criterion in performance evaluations and reward systems. Recognize and incentivize inventors who successfully leverage both recent and older scientific knowledge in their inventions.
Foster a culture of knowledge sharing: Create platforms and opportunities for inventors to share their knowledge and insights about relevant scientific literature, regardless of its publication date.
By implementing these strategies, organizations can cultivate an environment that values and encourages a balanced temporal search approach, ultimately increasing the likelihood of generating breakthrough inventions.