
Climate model projections underestimate the increase in the longest annual dry spells globally by 42-44% on average compared to current high-end scenarios.


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A newly identified emergent constraint applied to a key drought metric reduces uncertainty in future predictions of the longest annual dry spells, revealing that their increase due to climate change will be 40–50% greater than climate models project at present.

Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells - Nature

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Climate Models Underestimate Increase in Longest Annual Dry Spells Globally
