The author argues that there has never been a true "energy transition" in human history, where a viable energy source is abandoned in favor of a new one. Instead, new energy sources are added to the existing mix, driven by the Maximum Power Principle, which states that complex systems like the human economy tend to evolve in ways that maximize their power intake or energy throughput.
The author explains that energy efficiency is not a solution, as it violates the Maximum Power Principle and can lead to the "Jevons paradox," where increased efficiency leads to increased demand. The author also discusses the volatility of renewable energy sources, such as the significant fluctuations in the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation in the UK, and the challenges this poses for grid stability and the need for backup capacity.
The author further explores the supply challenges for critical minerals like copper, which are essential for the "energy transition" and are facing depletion and declining ore grades, leading to increased energy consumption and costs. The author argues that the "energy transition" is entirely dependent on the availability of fossil fuels, and that the true bottleneck to the world economy is the availability of low-cost fossil fuels.
The author concludes by stating that the "energy transition" is a mirage and that we need to face the realities of finite resources and thermodynamic constraints. Instead of investing in futile attempts to replace the irreplaceable, the author suggests building a resilient, low-tech, low-energy society that restores ecosystems and adapts to the changing environment.
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