Core Concepts
CopulaCPTS provides valid and efficient confidence intervals for multi-step time series forecasting.
Abstract
The paper introduces CopulaCPTS, a conformal prediction algorithm for multi-step time series forecasting. It addresses the limitations of existing methods by incorporating copulas to model joint uncertainty distribution. The algorithm is proven to provide valid confidence regions over the entire forecast horizon. Experimental results demonstrate CopulaCPTS's superiority in calibration and efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods across synthetic and real-world datasets.
Directory:
Introduction
Importance of accurate uncertainty measurement in machine learning systems.
Copula Conformal Prediction Algorithm (CopulaCPTS)
Proposal for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting.
Utilizes copulas for modeling temporal dependency and improving confidence intervals.
Experiments
Synthetic datasets: Particle simulation and drone trajectory prediction.
Real-world datasets: COVID-19 daily cases and Argoverse vehicle trajectory prediction.
Autoregressive Prediction Extension
Comparison of re-estimating copula versus fixed copula approach on COVID-19 dataset.
Conclusion and Discussion
Summary of findings, limitations, future work, acknowledgments, references.
Stats
CopulaCPTSは、多変量、複数ステップの時系列予測において有効な信頼区間を提供します。