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A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning: An Uncertainty Source’s Perspective


Core Concepts
Deep learning models sometimes make overconfident but incorrect predictions, leading to serious consequences. Uncertainty quantification methods aim to estimate confidence beyond accuracy.
Abstract
Deep neural networks have achieved success but can make overconfident errors. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to estimate confidence in predictions. Existing surveys focus on UQ methodologies from different perspectives. Data uncertainty and model uncertainty are key sources of uncertainty in DNNs. Various methods like Bayesian Neural Networks, ensemble models, and sample density-aware NNs address model uncertainty. Gaussian Process and its variants provide inherent uncertainty estimation but face challenges with large datasets.
Stats
"Deep neural networks (DNNs) sometimes make unexpected, incorrect, but overconfident predictions." "Uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to estimate the confidence of DNN predictions beyond prediction accuracy."
Quotes
"Knowing what a DNN model does not know comes down to placing appropriate uncertainty scores in its predictions." "Data uncertainty is often considered irreducible because we cannot reduce it by adding more training samples."

Key Insights Distilled From

by Wenchong He,... at arxiv.org 03-22-2024

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2302.13425.pdf
A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Learning

Deeper Inquiries

How can uncertainties in deep learning models be effectively communicated to end-users

Uncertainties in deep learning models can be effectively communicated to end-users through various strategies. One approach is to provide probabilistic outputs instead of deterministic predictions. By presenting the model's confidence level or uncertainty range along with the prediction, users can better understand the reliability of the results. Visualization techniques such as probability distribution plots, error bars, or heatmaps can also help convey uncertainties visually. Additionally, using clear and simple language to explain what uncertainty means in the context of the prediction can enhance user comprehension. Providing examples or scenarios where uncertainties play a crucial role in decision-making can further illustrate the importance of considering uncertainty.

What are the limitations of using ensemble models for uncertainty quantification in deep learning

While ensemble models are commonly used for uncertainty quantification in deep learning, they have certain limitations. One limitation is computational complexity and resource requirements due to training multiple independent models and storing them during inference. This overhead may not be feasible for real-time applications or large-scale datasets. Ensuring diversity among ensemble members is crucial for accurate uncertainty estimation; however, achieving this diversity may pose challenges depending on dataset characteristics and model architectures. Another limitation is that ensemble methods may struggle with capturing complex correlations between uncertain factors within a model.

How can the concept of uncertainty quantification be applied to other fields outside of technology

The concept of uncertainty quantification from deep learning models has broad applicability beyond technology fields into various domains such as finance, healthcare, climate science, and social sciences. Finance: Uncertainty quantification can aid in risk assessment for investment portfolios by providing probabilistic forecasts rather than deterministic predictions. Healthcare: In medical diagnosis and treatment planning, understanding uncertainties associated with AI-driven recommendations helps clinicians make informed decisions. Climate Science: Predicting weather patterns involves inherent uncertainties that could benefit from robust uncertainty quantification methods. Social Sciences: Analyzing survey data or predicting societal trends often involves dealing with ambiguous information where incorporating uncertainties becomes essential for reliable insights. By integrating uncertainty quantification techniques across these diverse fields, stakeholders can make more informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of both predictions and their associated uncertainties.
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