The study introduces an enhanced version of the Bass model to address forecasting challenges for trend curves with a single peak followed by a sharp decline and semi-stable sales. By collecting data from Google Trends and Kaggle, the traditional Bass model's limitations in predicting such curves were identified. Introducing a new parameter based on average sales ratios (r1 and r2) significantly improved predictive capabilities, reducing the sum of squares error (SSE) by 36.35% to 79.3%. The modified model outperformed the traditional Bass model in accurately forecasting trends, especially over extended periods. Examples demonstrated better curve alignment and reduced SSE when using the improved model, making it a reliable choice for handling mono peak curves.
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by Ahmad Abu Sl... alle arxiv.org 03-15-2024
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