Centrala begrepp
A deep diffusion model of satellite (DDMS) can effectively simulate the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of convective clouds, enabling accurate 4-hour thunderstorm nowcasting with broad coverage, high resolution, and superior performance compared to existing methods.
Sammanfattning
This article proposes a deep diffusion model of satellite (DDMS) to establish a high-resolution convection nowcasting system using geostationary satellite data. The key highlights are:
-
The DDMS employs diffusion processes to effectively model the complicated spatiotemporal evolution patterns of convective clouds, significantly improving the forecast lead time up to 4 hours.
-
The system utilizes geostationary satellite brightness temperature data, achieving planetary-scale forecast coverage of about 20,000,000 km2.
-
The system delivers state-of-the-art convection nowcasting performance, outperforming existing AI-based and traditional methods in terms of accuracy, lead time, and spatiotemporal resolution (15 minutes, 4 km).
-
The system operates efficiently, forecasting 4 hours of convection in just 8 minutes, and is highly transferable to collaborate with multiple satellite platforms for global convection nowcasting.
-
The results highlight the remarkable capabilities of diffusion models in convective clouds forecasting, as well as the significant value of geostationary satellite data when empowered by AI technologies.
Statistik
"Convection (thunderstorm) develops rapidly within hours and is highly destructive, posing a significant challenge for nowcasting and resulting in substantial losses to nature and society."
"Our system achieves, for the first time, effective convection nowcasting up to 4 hours, with broad coverage (about 20,000,000 km2), remarkable accuracy, and high resolution (15 minutes; 4 km)."
"The proposed DDMS outperforms pySTEPS (the second best) by 17.33% on CSI score in May 2022, outperforms NowcastNet (the second best) by 16.38% on CSI score in June 2022, by 12.89% on CSI score in July 2022, by 13.35% on CSI score in August 2022."
Citat
"Our system operates efficiently (forecasting 4 hours of convection in 8 minutes), and is highly transferable with the potential to collaborate with multiple satellites for global convection nowcasting."
"The results highlight the remarkable capabilities of diffusion models in convective clouds forecasting, as well as the significant value of geostationary satellite data when empowered by AI technologies."