The study introduces Local and Global Trend Bayesian Exponential Smoothing Models as extensions to classical ETS models. It discusses the motivation, model specifications, implementation details, and prior distributions. The models aim to address shortcomings in traditional ETS models by offering more flexibility in trend modeling and error distribution. The study provides insights into the application of Bayesian methods for accurate forecasting.
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by Slawek Smyl,... lúc arxiv.org 03-25-2024
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.13950.pdfYêu cầu sâu hơn