DoubleAdapt: A Meta-learning Approach to Incremental Learning for Stock Trend Forecasting

Core Concepts

DoubleAdapt is an end-to-end framework that adapts both the data and the model to cope with distribution shifts in the online environment for stock trend forecasting.

Abstract

The paper proposes DoubleAdapt, a meta-learning approach to incremental learning (IL) for stock trend forecasting. The key insights are:

Data Adaptation: DoubleAdapt introduces a data adapter that transforms the features and labels of the incremental data and the test data to mitigate the effects of distribution shifts. The data adapter contains a multi-head feature adaptation layer and a multi-head label adaptation layer.

Model Adaptation: DoubleAdapt introduces a model adapter that provides a good initialization of model parameters for each IL task and then adapts the initial parameters to fit the incremental data.

DoubleAdapt casts each IL task as a meta-learning task and optimizes the data adapter and the model adapter to minimize the forecast error on the adapted test data. Experiments on real-world stock datasets demonstrate that DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance and shows considerable efficiency compared to rolling retraining methods.

Stats

Stock price change rate of the next day is used as the stock price trend label.
The feature vector of each stock includes 360 technical indicators looking back 60 days.

Quotes

None

Key Insights Distilled From

DoubleAdapt

by Lifan Zhao,S... at arxiv.org 04-09-2024

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.09862.pdf

Deeper Inquiries

What other types of data adaptation techniques could be explored to further improve the performance of DoubleAdapt

To further improve the performance of DoubleAdapt, other types of data adaptation techniques could be explored. One approach could be to incorporate domain adaptation methods, such as adversarial training or domain-invariant feature learning, to align the distributions of incremental data and test data more effectively. Transfer learning techniques could also be utilized to leverage knowledge from related tasks or domains to adapt the data in a more informed manner. Additionally, self-supervised learning methods could be employed to learn representations that are robust to distribution shifts and can facilitate better adaptation of the data.

How can DoubleAdapt be extended to handle more complex distribution shifts, such as concept drifts that change the relationship between features and labels over time

To handle more complex distribution shifts, such as concept drifts that change the relationship between features and labels over time, DoubleAdapt can be extended by incorporating dynamic adaptation mechanisms. This could involve continuously monitoring the data distribution and updating the adaptation strategies in real-time to account for evolving patterns. Ensemble methods could be employed to combine multiple adaptation strategies and adaptively select the most suitable one based on the current distribution shift. Reinforcement learning techniques could also be integrated to learn adaptive policies for data and model adaptation in response to changing distribution dynamics.

How can DoubleAdapt be integrated with other investment strategies or portfolio optimization techniques to enhance the overall performance of quantitative investment

To enhance the overall performance of quantitative investment, DoubleAdapt can be integrated with other investment strategies or portfolio optimization techniques. One approach could be to combine DoubleAdapt with risk management strategies, such as Value at Risk (VaR) or Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), to incorporate risk considerations into the forecasting process. Portfolio optimization algorithms, such as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) or Mean-Variance Optimization, could be used in conjunction with DoubleAdapt to construct diversified portfolios based on the predicted stock trends. Reinforcement learning algorithms could also be employed to learn optimal trading policies based on the forecasts generated by DoubleAdapt, taking into account transaction costs and market impact. By integrating DoubleAdapt with these complementary techniques, the overall performance of quantitative investment strategies can be enhanced.