핵심 개념
Common cause principle resolves Simpson's paradox by considering unobserved variables.
초록
I. Introduction
Simpson's paradox limits drawing conclusions from probabilistic data.
Counter-intuitive effect demands more than extracting relative frequencies.
II. Common Cause Principle
Common cause C influences the association between a1 and a2.
Correct decision based on conditioning over C.
III. Summary
Resolution of Simpson's paradox through common cause principle.
Different outcomes based on common causes.
Tertiary causes introduce multiple possibilities.
통계
"If B and C are binary and A is quaternary, the conditioning over any binary common cause C establishes the same direction of the association between a1 and a2 as the conditioning over B in the original formulation of the paradox."
"For tertiary (unobserved) common causes C all three options of Simpson’s paradox become possible (i.e. marginalized, conditional, and none of them), and one needs prior information on C to choose the right option."
인용구
"Simpson’s paradox is an obstacle to establishing a probabilistic association between two events a1 and a2, given the third (lurking) random variable B."
"Common causes that are close to B imply option (2, 3) of the paradox, while C ≈ A leads to (1)."